XRP is trading between $1.41 and $1.43 on Thursday, holding just above its 200‑day exponential moving average near $1.34. The token’s market value tops $80 billion, with roughly 60 billion coins in circulation.
Price action and technical signals
The digital asset has slipped about 3 % on the day after a three‑session decline that followed a historic weekly surge of more than 56 % in August. That rally lifted XRP from under $1.00 to a high of $1.6963, the steepest weekly gain recorded since the post‑settlement rally of August 2025.
Technical indicators show mixed messages. The daily 14‑period RSI peaked at 87 during the surge, a level that typically precedes consolidation. By Thursday the RSI had eased to the high‑70s, while the Money Flow Index continued to fall.
A bearish MACD crossover appeared on lower‑timeframe charts, and long‑short ratios on Binance peaked at 2.53, with nearly 72 % of accounts positioned long. Long liquidations totaled about $4.66 million in a single day, roughly four times the short‑side losses.
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Despite the overbought reading, XRP has defended the $1.40 line three times in four sessions. That $1.40 line has now been defended three times in four sessions.
Whale movements and upcoming escrow release
On‑chain data reveal a sizable outflow of 231 million XRP from Binance, valued at about $326 million at current prices. The same week saw a $175 million deposit into exchange wallets from a Ripple co‑founder, a pattern traditionally linked to short‑term distribution.
Overall exchange reserves have been trending lower; Binance, Upbit and Bithumb together have shed roughly 240 million tokens since late May. Yet Binance’s reserves rose again during the recent pullback, suggesting some of the withdrawn supply may be returning to the market.
Institutional demand remains a key driver. U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted $28.14 million on August 26, the second‑largest daily inflow of the year. The Bitwise fund contributed $13.12 million, accounting for 46 % of the total. Weekly net inflows reached $39.8 million, the biggest single‑week flow since mid‑May.
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These ETF creations require actual XRP, providing a steady absorption mechanism for the monthly escrow release. Ripple is scheduled to release 1 billion XRP on September 1, of which 60 %–80 % is typically re‑locked.
For everyday traders, the situation means price stability may hinge more on whether institutional inflows can outpace the founder’s deposit and any renewed exchange inflows than on the raw size of the whale movements.
Looking ahead, the September 1 escrow release will add a predictable amount of new supply. The code‑level escrow cannot be accelerated, but Ripple controls how much of the released tokens it sells versus re‑locks. Should the company decide to retain the full billion in circulation, the net supply increase could be significantly larger than historic norms.
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