IN HIS second term, President Donald Trump so far has benefited from his Republican Party holding majorities in both houses of Congress, as he did in the top half of his first turn in the White House.When one party controls both the presidency and Congress, ambitious legislation can become law, as evidenced by the tax-cut measures enacted under Trump in 2017 and 2025. And with party faithful running congressional committees, a presidential administration is insulated, to some extent, from tough scrutiny from such bodies.
Now, public disapproval of Trump’s job performance threatens to end that unified government. A “wave election” favoring Democrats in the November 3 congressional elections would expose his administration to greater oversight and force it to compromise on legislation.
Even if control of only one chamber flips, Trump’s ability to get Congress to pass legislation opposed by Democrats would be thwarted. However, winning control of just one chamber wouldn’t allow Democrats to pass their own major legislation. The Senate’s filibuster rule requires 60 votes to pass most bills, a threshold the Democrats are unlikely to reach.
A Democratic-run Congress would likely launch new or re-energized investigations into Trump and his administration. Potential targets include the Trump family’s stock trading, the funding of a White House ballroom project, immigration policies, and the handling of files related to Jeffrey Epstein.
Congressional Investigations
Congressional committees have the power to issue subpoenas to compel testimony or document production and can cite those who refuse for criminal contempt. However, Congress cannot bring criminal charges itself; that power rests with the Justice Department.
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Democratic victories would also stall or block Trump’s judicial and executive nominees. Republican control of the Senate enabled Trump to win confirmation of controversial figures like Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. A Democratic-run Senate would give him considerably less leeway on appointments.
The president can enact significant policy changes without Congress through executive action. Trump has ordered military strikes on Iran, imposed and removed tariffs, fired large swaths of the federal workforce, withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization and the 2015 international climate treaty the Paris Agreement, and seized and extracted longtime Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to the US – all without legislative action from Congress.
Trump’s Executive Power
Ches McDowell, the managing partner of Checkmate Government Relations and a lobbyist with close ties to the Trump administration, said that Trump will remain the centre of power in Washington regardless of the outcome of the midterms.”We’ve been telling clients, the administration is still going to be the primary body to get anything done, no matter if the Democrats take the House and the Senate,” McDowell said at a Bloomberg Government executive dinner roundtable on Oct 21.
The Democrats are better positioned to win control of the House than the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats for a majority in the House and have overperformed in special elections since Trump returned to the presidency in January 2025.
The Senate poses a steeper challenge. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a 51-seat outright majority because Vice-President JD Vance could break any 50-50 split in favor of Republicans. Democrats would likely have to retain all or almost all of their 13 current seats that are being contested, including in the politically competitive states of Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire.
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Electoral Map Advantage
Yes. In recent months, seven states – Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas – have adopted more Republican-skewing electoral district maps. Some acted after the US Supreme Court in April 2026 curtailed the use of the Voting Rights Act to draw predominantly Black and Hispanic districts.
Another Republican advantage: The party’s political action committees generally are more cash-flush than their Democratic counterparts.The pro-Trump MAGA super-PAC had more than US$415 million in the bank as of early September, and the Republican National Committee had a cash advantage of more than US$100 million over the Democratic National Committee. However, super-PACs pay higher advertising rates than federal candidates, and a favourable political environment can neutralise the opposition’s cash advantage.
Historical Precedent and Current Polls
Historically, presidents often lose seats in midterm elections. Since World War II, a president’s party has lost an average of about 25 House seats and 3.5 Senate seats. Trump’s approval rating is 37 per cent, one of the lowest for any president since that war. This low rating may lead to seat losses for his party.
Public dissatisfaction with the country’s direction is high. Polls show voters are unhappy with the president. Trump’s approval rating is comparable to George W. Bush’s in 2006. That year, Democrats won majorities in both the House and Senate. Polls also show Democrats leading in voter enthusiasm and generic congressional ballot support.
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