Italian construction firm Icop is building investor confidence with strong first-half results and a new four-year growth plan. Equita Sim, the company’s financial advisor during its public exchange offer for rival Trevi, upgraded Icop’s stock from hold to buy and set a new target price of 37 euros. This adjustment suggests a possible 27% gain from current levels.
First-half results beat expectations
Icop reported revenue of 287 million euros in the first six months of the year, a 79% increase that exceeded broker estimates of 270 million euros. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization more than doubled to 52 million euros, marking a 101% rise. The EBITDA margin reached 18%, surpassing the 17% forecast.
The firm maintains a negative net financial position of 171 million euros, though liquidity has not weakened. Its order backlog stands at 1.5 billion euros, about 2.9 times the projected revenue for 2025. Icop also confirmed its 2026 guidance.
A four-year growth plan and the Trevi bid
The updated business plan covering 2026-2029 forecasts average annual revenue growth of 16% and EBITDA growth of 18%. Analysts pointed to a strong backlog and a book-to-bill ratio above 1 as signs of future stability.
Expansion is expected through foundation work in the U.S., microtunneling projects in Europe and the U.S., and faster maritime construction. Equita raised its 2029 revenue estimate by 4% to 907 million euros and its EBITDA forecast by 6% to 172 million euros, supporting the higher target price.
The main opportunity lies in Icop’s bid for Trevi. According to Equita, a successful deal would create the fourth-largest global operator in underground engineering. This potential has led Equita to set a secondary target of 42 euros per share.
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Competing offers and strategic fit
Icop began a voluntary public exchange offer for Trevi Finanziaria Industriale on June 28, proposing 133 Icop shares for every 1,000 Trevi shares. The transaction depends on securing 90% of voting rights and delisting Trevi. Competition appeared in late July when Webuild presented a rival cash offer at 4.50 euros per share.
Icop leads in private markets across Europe and the U.S., while Trevi has stronger connections to public-sector projects in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. Management estimates the merger could generate an additional 120-140 million euros in revenue and 55-75 million euros in EBITDA by 2030.
Equita projects the combined group could reach 1.7 billion euros in revenue and 300 million euros in EBITDA by 2029, with an EBITDA margin near 18% and a 24% rise in earnings per share.
The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank Investment Management, holds a 0.35% stake in Icop.
Icop’s future will depend on the outcome of the Trevi bid.
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